Roots 25% TTSA
Kasetprice farm-gate
NETTA R25
NETTA R30
R25 fcst
Starch TTSA
Starch fcst
OPERATIONAL SIGNALS / NETTA · DAILY
Chips / Ayutthayaมันเส้น
—THB/kg
—
Upstream signal for starch — when chip price rises, roots get diverted from starch processing, tightening starch supply with 2–4 wk lag.
Dry Residue / Mueangกากมัน
—THB/kg
—
Post-extraction byproduct sold as feed. Rising price corroborates firm feed-market demand → competitive bid for chips.
Industry CapacityUTILISATION
<50%
unchanged · ~5 wk flat
Factories running below half capacity for 5 weeks. When this flips above 50%, supply has loosened. Currently supply-constrained.
Method · TTSA 19 May + TTTA 21 May + NETTA 18 May + Kasetprice 15 May · level-shift + constrained-supply forecast
5-week trend-carry · 18 May NETTA + 15 May Kasetprice bias · factory-pressure index
⌄
Method · TTSA 19 May + TTTA 21 May + NETTA 18 May + Kasetprice 15 May · level-shift + constrained-supply forecast
5-week trend-carry · 18 May NETTA + 15 May Kasetprice bias · factory-pressure index
Observed price arrays are kept as source records and are not back-adjusted. The 21 May TTTA starch range is retained as a market cross-check; the TTSA 19 May domestic quote remains the model anchor. Forecast = confirmed level shift + persistent supply-pressure carry + weak seasonality + median-confirmed root momentum. Seasonal reversion is capped and cannot force a downturn until root medians weaken. R25 forecast is plotted with its uncertainty spread. R30 forward calculation is retained internally and folded into the starch forecast cone instead of being plotted as a separate line.
Stage 1 — weekly baseline
$$\hat{P}^{base}_{j,h} = \hat{P}_{j,h-1} + \rho(T_{j,h}-\hat{P}_{j,h-1}) + d_h m_j$$
$$T_{j,h}=A_j\frac{1+H_j(w_t+h)}{1+H_j(w_t)}, \qquad A_j=0.70P_{j,t}+0.30\overline{P_j}^{(4w)}$$
$$\rho=0.22,\qquad d_h=[0.65,0.35,0.12,0.05,0.02]$$
Muted seasonal harmonic
$$H_R(w)=-0.020\sin\left(\frac{2\pi w}{52}\right)+0.016\cos\left(\frac{2\pi w}{52}\right)$$
$$H_S(w)=-0.012\sin\left(\frac{2\pi w}{52}\right)+0.006\cos\left(\frac{2\pi w}{52}\right)$$
Stage 2 — NETTA bias correction
$$Bias^{NETTA}=\overline{R^{NETTA}_{25}}_{(t_a,t_a+7d]}-\hat{R}^{base}_{25,1}$$
$$\hat{R}^{bias}_{25,h}=\hat{R}^{base}_{25,h}+\gamma_h Bias^{NETTA},\qquad
\gamma_h=[0.85,0.55,0.30,0.15,0.05]$$
Stage 3 — factory-pressure index
$$PI_t=
0.30Z(R^{NETTA}_{30}-R^{NETTA}_{25})
+0.30Z(C^{NETTA}/2.5-R^{NETTA}_{25})
+0.15Z(G^{NETTA})
+0.15Z(R^{NETTA}_{25}-R^{weekly}_{25})
+0.20B_t
+0.10U_t$$
$$B_t=+1\ \text{for constrained cross-border/import flow},\qquad U_t=0.75\ \text{when utilization}<50\%$$
Final forecasts
$$\hat{R}_{25,h}=\hat{R}^{base}_{25,h}+\gamma_h Bias^{NETTA}+\beta_h PI_t+\kappa_h(K_{25,t}-R^{NETTA}_{25,t})$$
$$\beta_h=[0.055,0.040,0.025,0.015,0.005],\qquad \kappa_h=[0.35,0.22,0.12,0.06,0.02]$$
$$\hat{R}_{30,h}=\hat{R}_{25,h}+\bar{Q}+\eta_h(Q_t-\bar{Q}),\qquad Q_t=R^{NETTA}_{30,t}-R^{NETTA}_{25,t}$$
$$\eta_h=[0.65,0.45,0.28,0.15,0.06]$$
$$\hat{S}_{h}=\hat{S}^{base}_{h}+\lambda_h PI_t+\omega_h J_t$$
$$\lambda_h=[0.105,0.075,0.050,0.030,0.015],\qquad \omega_h=[0.28,0.15,0.07,0.03,0.00]$$
$$J_t=\max\left(0,\Delta S_t-\overline{\Delta S}_{prior}\right)$$
Conversion checks
$$R^{chips}_t=\frac{C^{NETTA}_t}{2.5}$$
$$R^{starch,gross}_t=0.20S^{TTSA}_t$$