KU•CCI Kasetsart University Center for Climate Intelligence · Dept of Agronomy · Bangkok ·Loading Fetching live forecasts and agricultural intelligence… ·KU•CCI Kasetsart University Center for Climate Intelligence · Dept of Agronomy · Bangkok ·Loading Fetching live forecasts and agricultural intelligence… ·
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Climate Indicators
ENSO Outlook
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Consensus
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Monsoon Onset
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Computing MJO-adjusted…
Root-zone SM · ERA5-Land
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Open-Meteo 0.27–0.81m · fetching… NASA GRACE-FO satellite may differ
Ocean–Atmosphere Indices▼
Niño 3.4 · ONI
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IOD
+0.1
Neutral / Watch
MJO Phase
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El Niño Watch · IRI/CPC ENSO Forecast▼
🌊 El Niño Watch · Pacific ENSO Status
IRI/CPC ENSO Forecast · Published 19 Feb 2026 · NINO3.4 region (120–170°W, 5°S–5°N)
⚡ El Niño developing
NINO3.4 · latest weekly
−0.2°C
Week of 11 Feb 2026 · Declining La Niña
Current Phase
Transitioning
La Niña → Neutral · CPC Advisory active
El Niño by MJJ 2026
58%
Dominant scenario May–Jul · IRI plume
ENSO Probability Forecast · Feb–Dec 2026
FMA
4%
96%
MAM
90%
9%
AMJ
65%
35%
MJJ
41%
58% El Niño
JJA
39%
59%
ASO
35%
61%
OND
34%
61%
La Niña (NINO3.4 ≤ −0.5°C)
Neutral
El Niño (NINO3.4 ≥ +0.5°C)
★ MJJ highlighted = monsoon overlap window
Fig 1 · CPC Official ENSO Probability Forecast
Fig 3 · IRI Model-Based ENSO Probability Forecast
Thailand Agricultural Implications
With El Niño becoming the dominant scenario from May–July 2026 onwards (58–61%), the risk of below-normal rainfall over mainland Southeast Asia and Isan increases significantly during the core monsoon season. This directly threatens second-crop cassava establishment, depresses reservoir inflows, and compresses the transplanting window for rainfed rice.
The monsoon onset in Thailand could be delayed 7–10 days relative to climatology under an El Niño pattern — contingent on MJO phase at onset time. Subsurface Pacific warming (Niño 1+2 at +0.7°C) is already signalling early tropical Pacific heat accumulation. Farmers should plan for a shorter and drier first-half monsoon season and prioritise drought-tolerant varieties (RD47, RD51) and water conservation from planting onwards.
Integrated reading across Thai agricultural sources
For rice farmers in the Central Plains, the recommended posture is to hold transplanting until monsoon onset is confirmed — targeting late June rather than the usual early June window. Drought-tolerant varieties (RD47, RD51 for rainfed areas; managed KDML105 for irrigated) should be prioritised. Water allocation from Bhumipol and Sirikit will be tight; coordinate with district irrigation offices before committing to large planted areas.
Cassava growers on the Khorat Plateau face a drier-than-normal soil profile at planting time. GRACE satellite data confirms root-zone moisture at the 28th percentile — well below what supports stress-free establishment. Mulching, row orientation to shade soil, and delayed planting by 2–3 weeks where possible will reduce transplant mortality. Yield impact from early-season deficit in cassava is typically front-loaded: once canopy closes, the crop is resilient.
For supply chains and exporters, a below-normal early season raises quality risk for fresh produce and increases irrigation cost for export-grade crops. The FAO early warning status for Thailand is Monitor. The most critical decision window is the 15th–20th of each month, when updated forecasts from all agencies are published simultaneously.
Thai Reservoir Levels · Real-Time
💧 Reservoir Storage Status
Live data · RID /dam/public API · 35 large dams · กรมชลประทาน
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Major Dams · Chao Phraya & Key Basins
Regional Summary · Medium Reservoirs
Thailand Weather Impact · Daily News▼
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Sources: The Nation Thailand · Thai Meteorological Dept · Bangkok Post